The Valentine’s Day economic impact in the United States runs to tens of billions of dollars, and an unusual share of it moves through small local businesses in a single week. Spending was forecast at a record $29.1 billion in 2026, 5.8% above the previous year’s record, at an average of $199.78 per person (National Retail Federation survey, reported by NACS).
National totals are only useful if you can translate them into something you act on: how many orders to expect, which categories will move, and what your inputs will cost. That’s what this page does. It stays on the numbers: what the money is, where it goes, and how to turn it into a forecast for one shop. The offers you’d build on top of that forecast are covered in our guide to Valentine’s Day business ideas.
The Bottom Line
U.S. Valentine’s spending was projected at $29.1 billion in 2026, up from a record $27.5 billion in 2025 (NRF).
Jewelry takes the largest dollar share at $7 billion, but flowers and candy have the broadest reach, bought by 41% and 56% of consumers respectively (NRF 2026).
The holiday’s effect runs past retail. 2024 Valentine’s spending was estimated to support 184,800 jobs and $34.7 billion in economic output (Chmura Economics).
Input costs rise with demand: flower prices were expected up to 15% higher and gold was up 66% year over year, so a flat price list quietly shrinks your margin.
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How much do Americans spend on Valentine’s Day?
$29.1 billion was the National Retail Federation’s figure for 2026, against a record $27.5 billion in 2025 and $25.8 billion the year before that. Per-person spending rose from $188.81 to $199.78 across those two surveys, while the share of consumers who celebrate held roughly steady in the mid-fifties, at 56% in 2025 and 55% in 2026 (NRF; 2026 figures via NACS).
That combination matters more than the headline. The number of celebrators isn’t growing. The amount each one spends is. For a local shop, that argues for raising average order value with bigger bundles, add-ons and a premium delivery window, rather than chasing a larger pool of buyers who mostly don’t exist.
Valentine’s Day spending by category
| Category | 2025 spend | 2026 spend | Consumers buying (2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jewelry | $6.5 billion | $7.0 billion | 25% |
| An evening out | $5.4 billion | $6.3 billion | 39% |
| Clothing | n/a | $3.5 billion | n/a |
| Flowers | $2.9 billion | $3.1 billion | 41% |
| Candy | $2.5 billion | n/a | 56% |
| Greeting cards | $1.4 billion | n/a | 41% |
Sources: NRF 2025 survey; 2026 figures via NACS.
Read the two columns differently. Dollar share tells you where the money is; buyer share tells you how many transactions there are. Jewelry is the biggest number and the smallest audience: a quarter of celebrators buying, often at high ticket prices, with buyers increasingly comparing options like lab-grown engagement rings as gold prices climb. Candy and flowers are the opposite: modest totals spread across tens of millions of purchases, most of them small, local and time-critical. Roughly 250 million roses are stocked for the holiday in a typical year (U.S. Chamber of Commerce), and the candy industry booked $5.2 billion in retail sales around the 2025 holiday (National Confectioners Association, via the U.S. Chamber).
Who the gift is for has shifted too. Romantic partners still dominate at about $14.5 billion, but family accounted for $4.5 billion, friends $2.4 billion, classmates and teachers $2.1 billion, coworkers $1.7 billion, and pets $2.1 billion, up from $1.7 billion the previous year (NRF 2026, via NACS). The non-romantic categories are the ones that order early and in bulk.
How Valentine’s Day affects the economy beyond retail sales
The spending multiplies as it moves. Chmura Economics estimated that 2024 Valentine’s Day spending could support more than 184,800 jobs and $34.7 billion in economic output, with the ripple through local supply chains accounting for a further 65,700 jobs and $19.2 billion (Chmura). Growers, wholesalers, packaging suppliers, couriers and card printers all sit inside that second number.
Restaurants see one of the sharpest single-day swings of the year. Full-service restaurant revenue ran about 34% above an average Friday on Valentine’s Day 2025, with takeout up 19% and dining peaking between 6pm and 7pm (Toast data, via the U.S. Chamber). A 19% takeout lift concentrated into a couple of evening hours is a delivery capacity problem in everything but name.
Why Valentine’s Day costs more to serve than it used to
Demand lifts input prices at exactly the moment you need volume. Flower prices were expected to run up to 15% higher in 2026 after cold weather hit growing regions, gold was up 66% year over year, which pushed jewelry pricing, and some chocolate brands saw prices rise around 30% (Society of American Florists, LendingTree and NRF figures, via Talk Business & Politics). Restaurant menu prices were up 4.1% year over year, and 4.9% at full-service venues (National Restaurant Association, same source).
So the record national total is partly inflation, not just appetite. If your Valentine’s price list is the same as last year’s and your flowers cost 15% more, the holiday grew your revenue and shrank your margin. Repricing before you publish the offer is the cheapest adjustment available, and it needs to happen while you’re still choosing which Valentine’s offers to run.
Turning national spending data into your own order forecast
National figures won’t give you an order count, but they will give you a direction and a shape. A workable method:
Start from your own history, not the national total. Pull last year’s February 13 and 14 order counts. That’s your base.
Apply the growth rate, not the total. Spending rose 5.8% year over year and per-person spend rose about 6%. Nudging your base by a single-digit percentage is defensible; doubling it because the national number is large is not.
Weight by category. If you sell flowers, the 41% buyer share and the rose supply figures matter more than the jewelry total. If you sell prepared food, the takeout lift and the 6pm to 7pm peak matter most.
Check the weekday. February 14 fell on a Saturday in 2026 and lands on a Sunday in 2027. A weekend holiday spreads orders across several days and shifts them toward residential addresses; a midweek one compresses them and pushes volume to offices.
Convert orders to stops, then stops to hours. This is where a forecast becomes a staffing decision, and it’s the step most shops skip. Our guide to preparing for Valentine’s Day orders covers the capacity math and the cut-off times that follow from it.
Then use the forecast to decide how hard to market. If your capacity ceiling is 120 deliveries and your forecast is 90, you have room to promote; if the forecast is 140, the honest move is to cap pre-orders and spend the marketing budget on average order value instead. Our Valentine’s Day marketing guide covers the campaign side once that number is settled.
What the Valentine’s spending data doesn’t tell you
Three blind spots. First, these are national consumer surveys, so they say nothing about your city, your neighborhood or your price band. A dense urban zip code and a rural delivery area can move in opposite directions in the same year. Second, the NRF numbers are intentions collected in early January, not receipts, so they describe plans that weather and prices can dent. Third, nothing in the data accounts for the supply side: a national total can rise while your particular wholesaler short-ships you roses on the one day it counts.
Treat the figures as a tailwind reading rather than a promise. The holiday reliably brings more demand than a normal week in every category this audience sells into. How much of it you capture is decided by your capacity, your cut-off and your pricing, not by the national total.
Frequently asked questions
How much is Valentine’s Day worth to the U.S. economy?
Consumer spending was forecast at $29.1 billion for 2026, up 5.8% on 2025’s record $27.5 billion (NRF). Counting the knock-on effects, Chmura Economics estimated 2024 spending supported around 184,800 jobs and $34.7 billion in total economic output.
How long does the Valentine’s Day boost to the economy last?
The consumer spike is concentrated in the ten days before February 14, but the supply chain feels it earlier. Growers, wholesalers and packaging suppliers book Valentine’s volume weeks ahead, which is why the ripple effects Chmura measures are spread across the quarter rather than the day.
Which Valentine’s Day category grew fastest?
Pets, proportionally. Spending on gifts for pets rose from $1.7 billion to $2.1 billion between the 2025 and 2026 surveys (NRF). Among the larger categories, an evening out grew most in dollar terms, from $5.4 billion to $6.3 billion.
Does Valentine’s Day actually help small businesses, or mostly large retailers?
Both, in different categories. Jewelry and clothing dollars concentrate in larger retailers, while flowers, candy, baked goods and prepared food are dominated by local operators, and those are the categories with the broadest buyer participation, at 56% for candy and 41% for flowers (NRF 2026).
